Many are so concerned about the financial health and outlook for Scotland’s greatest sporting institution that they are simply desperate for an announcement that the deal has been agreed. However, these things take time and there have been endless hours of effort by all parties behind the scenes over the last few days. The club told the supporters yesterday that the next 48 hours should provide a good indication into how things might turn out. So we watch, listen and wait: Again.
Reading between the lines though, there are a number of issues which could be said to be worthy of raised eyebrows and hint at genuine obstacles remaining in place at this point in time. Chairman Alastair Johnston’s media update following Thursday’s internal Takeover Committee meeting with Craig Whyte was interesting.
Johnston described the meeting as positive “to the extent that he [Whyte] was engaged”, however he offered no reported opinion as to the substance of Whyte’s proposals, plans or investment strategy, nor did he endorse Whyte personally or give any indication that the committee felt inclined to rubber-stamp the takeover. Actually, he hasn’t given any indication whatsoever that he thinks this (in its current form) is a good idea: quite the opposite.
Yesterday’s quotes attributed to Johnston on the BBC rather indicate that there appears to be a difficulty around the extent Craig Whyte is prepared to invest beyond any purchase/debt repayment deal, "I want a forcing mechanism to force him to do what he says he is going to do in terms of future investment in the club... talking about £25m is easy.” This strongly suggests that no solid commitment from Whyte has been offered to the Rangers Board - or that any commitment does not match what Johnston and the Board believe is required for the club. Some might also say there are slight suggestions of mistrust.
Those who have followed the saga will recall three things: Sir David Murray has repeatedly said he will only sell the club to someone who can keep it safe and take it forward; Alastair Johnston has often said that Rangers require in the region of £5m additional unencumbered cash year-on-year; and (importantly) that Craig Whyte’s proposals from the very start were reported to include a £25m investment over five years at the rate of £5m per annum. Bear in mind that these figures were leaked to the media by the Whyte camp, principally via Alastair Lamont of the BBC; and this was the basis upon which Whyte was allowed by Sir David Murray to proceed with the process. So that’s all neat and tidy isn’t it? Well maybe not....
The point now seems to be that this previous commitment from Whyte is either no longer on the table, or that it has been diluted to some extent – that is what Alistair Johnston was alluding to on Friday. This raises some important questions. Is Sir David Murray prepared to do this deal even in the absence of said prior commitment, which as we’ve seen, is what the Rangers Board believe is required? What will Murray be prepared to concede to get this over the line? To be fair there is every indication that Murray is genuinely interested in the Rangers legacy (whether that be motivated by his own self-interest or by what’s right for Rangers), but at the same time there are pressures in his world, and some say, elements of his character which make it very much in his interest to sell the club to Whyte, now.
Additional questions arise in terms of Craig Whyte himself. There has been almost constant chatter about his actual ability to fund the deal plus investment, which is understandable given the extent of the commitment required and his ultra-low profile and his largely offshore activities - as well as the natural exposure attached to Rangers. Therefore some are now asking why Whyte’s original commitment to £25m over five years is not currently in the form of a guarantee. What’s changed and why?
Alastair Johnston’s attacks on the bank in the last 24 hours have been astonishing – especially his candour in today’s Telegraph relating to Donald Muir (the enemy within) (the enemy within) and the process of decision-making and communication. Quite why he is heaping pressure on Lloyds at this particular stage is uncertain. It could be interpreted that he is helping Whyte secure approval for his current/latest offer by applying pressure on LBG and therefore Murray. Or that he is looking beyond the Whyte deal assuming that it will collapse (or in case it collapses). Perhaps he’s just letting off steam in his swansong?
Cynics might also pose more fundamental questions for Alastair Johnston and his team at the club though. All Rangers fans expect the Directors to act in the best interests of the club and most would have no fears that this might not be the case. But at the same time, it is also fairly obvious and natural that there are varying degrees of (sometimes shared) personal interest, aspirations and friendship attached to those in the Boardroom.
Firstly, it wouldn’t be unrealistic to think that Alastair Johnston and Martin Bain will no longer be involved in Rangers post-takeover. And although fellow-directors Dave King and Paul Murray are not part of the Takeover Committee due to the potential conflict of interests they might have, it’s also not too much of a stretch either to imagine that there is a degree of alignment between these four protagonists. The recent problems with Lloyds suggest these guys would have formed a 'team', along with McIntyre and Greig.
Fling in some wealthy and well-connected Rangers fans who have previously expressed an interesting in taking control of the club (plus at least one senior employee) and one’s imagination doesn’t need an Olympic leap to suppose there might be some form of coalition behind the scenes who are not necessarily predisposed to Craig Whyte taking over - maybe they have an alternative idea? Interestingly, Johnston last night seemed to suggest to the BBC that, in fact, the level of investment required this summer is actually £10m plus... I wonder how Craig Whyte reacted to this (presumably sudden) news. Or maybe Walter Smith told Whyte the same and it’s more than he had factored in?
So the situation this morning might be that Murray isn’t being offered what he saw as the ‘must-have’ legacy deal but may be considering going ahead anyway; Whyte may not be following through on earlier commitments, for whatever reason; and Johnston et al might be putting obstacles in the way (or helping) - again for whatever reasons (hopefully well-founded if they are helpful, and as a minimum solely in the best interests of the club).
Lloyds Banking Group must be interested bystanders after saying on Thursday that it is effectively out of the loop. Many people might wonder what pressure is being applied where and by whom (including on and by Lloyds), as the mercury rises and the various interest groups try to secure their disparate and arguably competing objectives. There appears to be dilemmas all over the place for those involved so it’s not too difficult to understand why the deal isn’t done at this point in time - even although it’s clear to everyone that Rangers needs new ownership, stability, investment and strategic impetus as soon as possible.
From here, it looks like the Bears aren’t out of the woods yet - even if the deal goes through.