There seems no need to dwell on last night’s result, save to marvel at the way Spain play when approaching top gear; like so many other acts demanding years of practice and high levels of skill it is all made to look so easy, like watching a top-class orchestra play as if the need for a conductor was superfluous. In Xavi Hernandez, the present Spain side has an effective leader of the football orchestra, but there are definite echoes of the Vienna Philharmonic in the way the side can easily replace and move around the players and yet still produce the same, unfettered majesty. (That’s enough of that, please. Ed.)
What of Scotland? Some encouragement, to be sure, but those making the case that late pressure and some missed opportunities represent the fleeting glimpse of another what might have been would do well to muse on the profligate Spanish finishing, at times so horribly out-of tune with the build-up they seemed more suited to the nearby rowdy, discordant and disorganised beach soccer games.
The Players
International managers require a good deal of luck and have to employ a significant amount of good judgement. In terms of luck – the players available to Craig Levein – there are encouraging signs in some, if not all, areas.
We don’t, when all is said and done, have much to worry about when it comes to goalkeepers.
We do, however, have some problems at the back: the most glaring of which is in the heart of that defence.
Previously we wondered if fans of The Rangers would be comfortable with a central partnership of Caldwell and Berra. I think most have now recovered. Leaving aside the obvious temptation to poke fun at our runners-up across the city, it’s doubtful that the Scotland two would make their problems at centre-back better overnight. So when you think of this duo which SPL side comes to mind as a suitable home? Dundee United, perhaps? Hmm.
It’s been too easy of late to wonder what on Earth Caldwell is doing but it’s no fun to report that Christophe Berra doesn’t look comfortable at international level. Levein doesn’t have many options here to delight but one priority act should be a chat with Kenny Dalglish about the prospect of loaning Danny Wilson to enable him to play first-team football. At full-back, the coming year or two is likely to see Lee Wallace stake a claim under Levein (assuming he can break the recent cycle of injury) but concerns over the defensive capability of Alan Hutton cannot be excused by simply pointing out the strength of last night’s opposition. Bardsley on the other flank has been more solid but on his attacking forays it is all too apparent – and often embarrassing to note – that his left foot is little more than a useful tool for balancing. Whittaker will come back into the squad and perhaps the side but he too is better at going forward and although not as concerning as the central problems there’s little doubt that against genuinely good opposition we are a little way short in this department.
In midfield we seem to have genuine options, but the most pressing priority is to make the best of Charlie Adam. Some say he plays like a jittery quarterback, with panicked and often inaccurate long passes up the field but if you’ll pardon the mixed sporting references he should best be employed as a stand-off half: being able to switch the play with long passes and generally moving the play into corners and stretching other sides territorially is a fine tactic and one which could work very well with Scotland if we encourage wider players with a little speed (see in future Forrest and Wylde) and have solid men next to Charles to do the donkey work (step forward Scott Brown).
Then there is the continuing debate over Darren Fletcher – is he, like many before him, someone who can perform a role in a good team with great players around him (see Man. United) but can’t lead an average side and thus held up to be an underachiever in the blue of Scotland? He certainly doesn’t lack for commitment: his appearance in recent games was quite remarkable given the physical weakness he suffered with but even his biggest fans won’t contend that his performances were of the Good Darren variety. But he is going nowhere in international terms and thus we have to hope fitness and continued appearances for Sir Alex can keep him ticking over.
Barry Bannan’s time as a regular at international level will come (and if he can maintain form and presence at EPL level for a season then this will be sooner rather than later) but for others, like Don Cowie, it’s harder to suggest they should be racking up the caps at this point. Not all of the new(ish) players have made a great impression but Levein has no case to answer here.
Up front it’s obvious that Steven Fletcher will return to the squad and we should welcome the man who has done well at the higher level of EPL football. Mackail-Smith may be as Scottish as Terry Butcher but he’s shown enough to suggest he merits a regular call-up and with Goodwillie and others also in contention – not to mention the Errshurr Messi and his ability to play in a number of advanced positions – perhaps it’s time to hand Kenny Miller the international retirement package (bronzed).
Indeed, this is something which might have to be looked at in a general sense – even if Scotland do qualify for the Brazil 2014 tournament the games when played will be closer to three than two years away, in tough conditions, and we have to assess if certain players will by that point really still be at the required level. It seems likely, however, that we will worry about that only if we do qualify.
So, despite misgivings, perhaps things aren’t quite as worrisome as many would suggest, at least when it comes to the squad we have now, and the number of them playing at a high level in English football.
The Manager
What is more worrying is the level of argument put forward for the retention of Levein.
It tends to focus on the emotional and the hopeful and start with “He deserves another chance”, progress through “He’ll learn from mistakes” and conclude along the depressed lines of “Who else do we have?”
Now, the latter of those arguments is at once the easiest to make and yet the hardest to fathom: upon his appointment one of the key questions raised was “Who else do we have?” which somehow managed to silence the more important consideration: “What has he done to deserve this?”
There were many who wondered aloud at the time about the appointment and it is entirely fair to suggest that those people would now be chief amongst the antagonists for change - they will not have been placated by the evidence so far. What is perhaps more interesting is to ask if there now exists anyone who didn’t back him at the time but who is willing to accept that this experiment has been a success? It doesn’t seem very likely: the most remarkable aspect of the support for the manager is found in the temperature of its backing – when measured it is decidedly lukewarm and tepid.
Those who aren’t a fan of Levein can accurately be summed up with the insistence that what is obvious - yet seems hard to speak - is as follows: Craig Levein has little pedigree as a football manager which would give anyone confidence enough to believe that 1) He could cope with the demands of being an international manager and 2) That he will learn from the mistakes of this campaign.
This is a man, after all, with next to no experience of European football at club level (only seven games) and, more alarmingly, someone who entirely misjudged both the level of the Czech Republic and the importance of the Lithuania game. Being manager of Scotland is a very difficult job, clearly one which requires specialist help, and with the greatest of respect to his backroom staff, those men don’t exactly inspire or give the impression that our best men are on the case. Do we have anyone in the team with the necessary scouting skills? It’s a hard one to answer. Were we badly prepared at the beginning of this qualification process? It seems easier to affirm.
Craig may always be remembered (not fondly) for the 4-6-0 in Prague but in truth the formation isn’t as important as the approach – we made no attempt to score in the game and, indeed, had at times literally no other option but to punt the ball up the park when we did have possession. This is simply not acceptable but the greater concern over Craig Levein is not the starting position: it’s the way that both in Prague and notably also in Kaunas he was so very slow to implement plan B. That is a more telling indictment of his abilities than employing a negative formation, something many more capable men who have preceded him have turned to when the circumstances dictated. Focusing over-long and too-often on tactical formations runs the risk of both granting too much importance to them as solid, unchangeable constructs and rewarding the agendas of those who, quite frankly, couldn’t tell you much about the intricacies of their deployment.
An international manager’s lot is very different from the equivalent at club level and man-management and motivation have to be chief amongst the talents possessed by the man in charge. Although Craig Levein is a little spiky in post-match conversation he does seem to be genuinely liked by the majority amongst the Scottish sporting media and there are no signs that he struggles with the players he has chosen to select. There are concerns over those excluded – for various reasons – but here it seems likely that both player(s) and manager will indeed learn from previous mistakes and mis-steps.
The problem for Levein - and it is one shared by those who make the case that failure to qualify is not a sacking offence - comes in the shape of the SFA’s own stated plans for the future. Within the ‘Scotland United 2011: a 2020 vision’ document – mercifully not as long-winded and inaccessible as their recent volume on streamlined and efficient disciplinary improvements – it is made clear that failure to reach the WC finals in 2014 will mean that the national side has not improved to Level 1 standard. This applies to all national sides (including the perfumed variety) and is, for a document drawn up by dullards at desks, pretty unequivocal. Failure to qualify once – for 2012 – can and will be excused but only if the improvement (Scotland ‘winning’) then leads to an end to the famine of finals inclusion.
The World Cup
It might not make for comfortable reading but let’s have a quick peek at the qualifying group for the 2014 Brazil World Cup. Here are Scotland’s opponents:
Belgium – Third in a group where the Germans were perfect (ten wins from ten) and Turkey got the better off them. Certainly not to be underestimated and we have previous when it comes to close qualifying campaigns.
Croatia – Play-offs ahead for them, decent record in major tournaments since we last played in one, excellent home crowds: Undoubtedly very difficult opponents.
Serbia – NI fans will tell you they are good but not quite top-tier. Still, capable of decent results even if we should be pleased at noises from their camp suggesting the retirement of at least one of their best players and take heart from their inconsistent results in a weak group.
FYROM – Single goal defeats to Russia (twice) and ROI suggest they won’t be a pushover, even if they are far from a top side. Our last trip to Skopje resulted in defeat.
Wales – All too recently hopeless but now improving and competitive internationals against other home nations aren’t numbered among Scotland’s strong areas.
It is a difficult group – and important to consider is the challenges the away ties are likely to pose, which should set alarm bells ringing – but are we really saying a good manager couldn’t get us to the play-offs, at least? In the absence of an exceptional side in European terms – think Spain, Netherlands, Germany – there will be a lot of points dropped and the localised nature of some of the fixtures is bound to encourage some ‘interesting’ matches.
To qualify Scotland will have to perform well at Hampden and find a way to pick up points and victories on foreign soil. The former, if backed by an enthusiastic support and sensible game-plan, is less worrying than the plans for the latter.
Scotland would be placed at the bottom of the third-placed teams in the 2012 European Championship Qualifying, both in terms of points per game and if the results of the weakest sides in each group were removed to ensure fairness for those with fewer opponents.
Our solitary away win was a one goal victory in Liechtenstein. Before that our last win in a qualifier away from home was in Iceland where Kirk Broadfoot starred for Scotland. That last sentence tells you something about our overseas trips and for all the delights of Paris in the previous European qualifying, matters were slightly soured by the grim gubbing in Georgia.
Levein’s away displays in Prague and Kaunas cost Scotland this time around. This is the area where the lessons have to be learned. This is also where the greatest concern rests.
The Future
Those who point to the (relative) success of smaller or comparable European nations in recent qualification campaigns are preaching to the converted, but it’s unlikely we will see the benefits of any long-term SFA vision (assuming you believe it exists) for the best part of a generation. In the meantime, as galling as it is to see the likes of Estonia (!) in the play-offs and the repeated automatic qualification of other nations who seem to make the best of their weak domestic set-up and population disadvantages, what we face with Scotland is simple and yet made difficult by prevailing attitudes.
There exists within some in the Scottish game a commonly-held assumption that we cannot do any better and, disturbingly, this extends in some quarters to the resigned and defeatist suggestion that we should accept this as a legitimate way of thinking.
This can be seen most clearly in the foundation of the argument for the continuation of Levein as manager – for all the fluff about ‘improvement’ (which is arguable but certainly not when placed against the disaster that was the call-off spree and general malaise of the bottle-bank days of the Burley regime) it all comes back to this: “Who else would take the job?” and “We don’t have anybody better.”
Otherwise sensible people are happy to parrot these lines and variations on the theme, and this will be all too familiar to fans of The Rangers, who have on a couple of recent occasions been met with such arguments of woe and despair. Listing possible replacements often leads to depression – partly due to the existence of a list kept in some newspaper cupboard (more likely now to be a Word document) which just runs through the same old people (the Jimmies and Jims and Wee Gordons and possibly that man Baxter) – but there’s too often a complete lack of both faith and imagination to be found, a false modesty expressed that will surely prevent anyone of any real merit from even contemplating such an imposition as considering the national job. Wee Fat Eck may have struggled with his Celtic tiger metaphor – and he won’t want to be reminded of his Icelandic love-in, neither – but for all we laugh and laughed at the Irish, our Anglo-heavy squad isn’t likely to be presented as the stock selection of multi-generational Scottish crofters and caber-tossing homeboys, and the Irish FA’s approach to finding the right man didn’t want for resourcefulness or restrict itself to Guinness drinkers.
If Craig Levein delivers Scotland to the play-offs for the Brazil World Cup he is likely – unless we are met with the equivalent of another Dutch doing – to be in control of his own destiny and will move on. If we qualify he will rightly be given enormous credit and the gap between major competition appearances will be only 26 years, sobering enough as that is. Failure will result in his removal from the position. The present opportunity to look at the options will not be taken by his bosses at the SFA and someone at the organisation will earn their salary when it comes to negotiating the order of fixtures for the forthcoming campaign.
A good start will prove the doubters wrong and silence any grumbles for a while at least, but we have to prove that, contrary to lowered expectations, we are indeed serious: both about qualifying again for major tournaments and in expecting the best from those we employ and those we consider worthy of the job as manager of a mad, footballing nation.