Nobody outside of Craig Whyte and his team currently knows which way the cards will fall in the takeover episode, but Rangers fans all around the world are today starting to finally get hopes up as positive noises emerge from Lloyds Banking Group (LBG) and the Whyte camp, principally via Sky Sports and now other media outlets.
It’s understandable that supporters are getting excited. There’s been so much gloom and doom since January 2009 that, to be honest, we are due a break. Lloyds Bank (clearly twitchy about the growing accusations of putting obstacles in the way and acting unreasonably) have taken, what for them, is a modest hit at the request of Whyte.
On the face of it, Whyte has been incredibly cute, knowing that the bank wants out and seizing the opportunity to knock down the price even further through implied deadlines and by playing hardball on certain ‘deal-breaking concerns’ at the last minute. He might have saved himself a couple of £M in the last 48 hours which is not to be sniffed at no matter how wealthy one is.
The deal also makes sense for LBG. David Tanner’s line on Sky Sports News this afternoon has been that the bank has been “incredibly helpful” in nursing Rangers back to financial health, and is effectively facilitating the sale between two willing parties. Good old Lloyds eh? What lovely guys! More accurate is that LBG will still recoup all or nearly all its outstanding money, albeit with minor adjustments and perhaps involving some restructuring. And in doing so, the bank can no longer be painted as the ‘bad guy’ in terms of blocking a takeover. If it fails to get over the line that’s a baby Lloyds did not want to be holding. There is also the added bonus of looking forward to not having to worry about media-managing the ‘Rangers problem’ going forward. They just don't need it.
So is it all but a done deal? Whyte’s camp have told Sky Sports that the deal is within “touching distance” so clearly they wish to present a positive update. Whether this is to buy time on the back of LBG’s positive positioning whilst things are still up in the air, only Craig Whyte knows. But to most it seems far-fetched for him to be spinning a line at this stage in the game.
However (and slightly concerning) the fact remains that several normally well-informed people in several circles continue to report what seem to be genuine nagging doubts over Whyte’s commitment to (and/or capability to make good on) the entire deal previously agreed with Sir David Murray. The deal, as has been widely reported is to satisfy LBG on price/debt to the bank and third parties; to pay Murray approx £5m for his equity; and to invest £5m of ‘new money’ per annum for a period of five years. This is no mean commitment and it’s clearly time for him to put his money on the table or for those who remain disbelievers to substantiate their concerns.
This week’s presentation by Whyte and his team of LBG as the ‘problem’ has now been resolved. Was he (successfully) putting leverage on LBG or preparing an exit strategy? Only time will tell. But it would seem highly improbable that Craig Whyte has spent what is rumoured to be the thick end of £1m and a lot of time on the process so far if he had/has no intention of going ahead. So if (if) there is a problem, it’s logical to assume that there is a financing issue, there are individual items or significant loose ends requiring more negotiation, or that the numbers are ‘tight’. There is talk of all three, but also pretty strong indications that no material issues are outstanding.
One thing’s for sure though: if it falls apart now there is going to be one almighty storm and Rangers FC, LBG, Murray and the entire Rangers support are back to square one – and presumably each very unhappy. Where that would leave Whyte in terms of status, reputation or publicity is anyone’s guess although he appeared out of nowhere so presumably he thinks he could vanish again...... I’m not so sure about that though!
So it’s now up to Craig Whyte to make good on his commitments, and for Murray to get the deal done. There's so much talk of a conclusion this week (from various sources) that it seems highly likely that the current momentum will be sufficient to get it there one way or the other. It might be that each needs to give a little on any outstanding issues, and from Murray’s point of view now is surely the time to get Rangers off his hands and in doing so begin to move his company out of the LBG-administered emergency ward. There is every motivation for Murray to get this done; and quickly. If not, there are going to be a lot of angry and disappointed people who will want answers, and it’ll all get very messy. My guess is both Murray and Whyte know that, and that the indications are very strong that this time it's the real deal.
With the club in the position it’s in right now and the irrefutable need for stability, investment and new strategic impetus, the time and circumstances seem exactly right for this deal to be done. If indeed it happens, watch out for some blood on the carpet and a tricky transition period for old and new members of the Rangers Board - even amongst the immense relief and elation most supporters will feel, it may not be pretty.